The Tight Supply-Demand Balance Persists, SHFE Tin Fluctuates Rangebound with Upward Bias in Afternoon Session [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the afternoon of October 27, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2512 contract opened lower and moved higher. During the night session, SHFE tin was in the doldrums, closing slightly lower at 282,550 yuan/mt. It opened at 283,260 yuan/mt this morning, briefly dipped, then gradually rebounded, hovering near 284,290 yuan/mt by midday, up 830 yuan from the previous settlement price. For the overseas market, the three-month LME tin price was quoted around $35,900/mt, with relatively cautious market activity and an increase in open interest.

From a macro perspective, the market focused on the US Fed's interest rate meeting this week, as expectations for an interest rate cut continued to build, creating a loose environment for risk assets. Domestic liquidity remained ample, while uncertainties such as a potential US government shutdown persisted, keeping a cautious tone in capital markets. The US dollar index fluctuated rangebound, exerting some pressure on dollar-denominated LME tin prices, but expectations for global liquidity easing supported the base metal market.

Overall, under a tight supply-demand balance, the tin market was dominated by macro sentiment, maintaining a fluctuating trend at highs. For the afternoon trading session, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue fluctuating and consolidating within the range of 281,000-285,500 yuan/mt.